Hurricane Idalia formed Tuesday morning gaining steam into the afternoon as it continued into the Gulf of Mexico where the forecast predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane before striking Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In its 5 p.m. advisory, the NHC said the center of Hurricane Idalia had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and higher gusts located about 195 miles southwest of Tampa moving north at 16 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend out 25 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 160 miles.
Squalls have already begun to spread out over portions of the Florida Keys and southwest Florida and will spread out and up across the Florida peninsula overnight as the system drives up along the Gulf Coast. Tornado warnings hit Collier County after noon as the storm bands pushed through.
“Rapid intensification is likely through landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake.
Its projected path has the center making landfall in Florida’s Big Bend part of the Gulf Coast and heading inland between Gainesville and Tallahassee. Forecasters predicted earlier Tuesday the storm would reach peak sustained winds of 125 mph with gusts up to 155 mph right before landfall and storm surge that could top 15 feet by mid-morning Wednesday.
As of 4 p.m. Tuesday, just over 10,000 customers were without power in the state, according to website poweroutage.us.
During a news conference in Lake City about 80 miles northeast of the projected landfall area, Gov. Ron DeSantis made one last plea for residents to flee the coast ahead of the expected deadly storm surge.
“You’ve got time to [leave] in this Big Bend area, but time is running out very, very rapidly,” he said.
Hurricane Idalia live updates: Orlando City Hall closes
DeSantis on Tuesday expanded his executive order declaring a state of emergency to 49 counties, up from 46 on Monday including Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole and Volusia counties in Central Florida.
DeSantis spoke from the state EOC in Tallahassee then from Wildwood where Duke Energy is staging its lineman trucks before his appearance in Lake City. He has at least one more press conference from Tallahassee scheduled for 5:45 p.m. Video of the press conferences are available at thefloridachannel.org and on the governor’s Facebook page.
“If this storm hits at high tide, storm surge could and would reach 8 to 12 feet in some areas and so that would be life threatening storm surge,” DeSantis said from Tallahassee. “I know all those areas are under evacuation notices in the low lying and coastal areas. You run from the water and you hide from the wind. If you’re there in that storm surge, you’re putting your life in jeopardy when it gets to be that that high.”
He noted that the Big Bend portion of the state really has not endured a hurricane of this strength since going back to the 1800s.
“So those coastal areas there have not necessarily been through this before,” he said. “I think that being safe is the appropriate thing and in erring on the side of caution is the appropriate thing.”
The state Department of Transportation has removed tolls in portions of the state to assist in evacuation efforts.
A hurricane warning is in effect along the Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key north to Indian Pass near Apalachicola that includes Tampa Bay. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas and on Florida’s Gulf Coast from Chokoloskee north to Longboat Key as well as west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach on the Panhandle. Tropical storm warnings also remain in effect for Florida’s east coast from Sebastian Inlet north to South Santee River, South Carolina.
A hurricane watch is in place for the U.S. East Coast from the mouth of the St. Mary’s River north to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge and on the East Coast north of Surf City, N.C. to the North Carolina-Virginiaborder.
A storm surge warning is in effect for Florida’s Gulf Coast from Englewood north to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay with storm surge watches from Bonita Beach north to Englewood including Charlotte Harbor and on the Atlantic coast from the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to the South Santee River in South Carolina, Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, North Carolina and the Neuse and Pamlico rivers in North Carolina.
Storm surge was the driving force that led to the deadly effects of last year’s Hurricane Ian that made landfall in southwest Florida, resulting in almost 150 deaths. The Category 5 hurricane damaged 52,000 structures, nearly 20,000 of which were destroyed or severely damaged.
The NHC maintained its storm surge projections at 5 p.m. saying waters could rise from 10-15 feet from the Aucilla River near Tallahassee south to Yankeetown in Levy County, and then 7-11 feet south of there to the Chassahowitzka River near Homosassa along Florida’s Nature Coast. Surge could hit 6-9 feet south of Chassahowitzka to the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs and north of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River in the Panhandle with lower surge threats in Tampa Bay, Southwest Florida and the Panhandle.
The storm is expected to move quickly over the state, but rainfall totals could still bring 4-8 inches with some areas with as much as 12 inches across ports of Florida’s west coast and the Florida Panhandle as well as southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas that could lead to urban and flash flooding.
Could Hurricane Idalia swing back toward Florida east coast?
Its long-term path will bring it out over the Carolinas after which there is some threat it could double back toward the U.S. east coast, including one model that brings it back down toward Florida.
Though Metro Orlando is not predicted to bear the storm’s brunt, the signs of a coming storm were clear Monday. Local governments set up sand bag sites, grocery stores stacked bottled water and other supplies, school districts canceled after-school activities, and city and county officials urged residents to make preparations.
Sumter County is under a hurricane warning while Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole and Volusia counties are all under a tropical storm warning. School systems in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Volusia called off classes on Wednesday. UCF also announced classes and most campus operations would be shut down Wednesday.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne said parts of east Central Florida will see 2-3 inches of rain with some pockets hitting 4-5 inches, but also warning tornadoes could begin to form inland starting this afternoon with the threat continuing into Wednesday. The NWS said the area could see 25-35 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 45 mph.
“From mid afternoon into tonight, the frequency and strength of outer bands from Hurricane Idalia will increase,” according to the NWS forecast. “The timing of peak impacts will be during this period.”
Hurricane Idalia: Central Florida braces for impacts, but likely to avoid direct hit
President Biden on Monday approved an emergency declaration and ordered federal assistance in responding to the storm. DeSantis had submitted a request for aid Sunday night to the White House.
DeSantis urged all Floridians to prepare for the storm’s dangers.
“We’ve got to stop focusing on the cone and look at all the areas that could be affected,” DeSantis said, noting that forecasts for Hurricane Ian kept changing and shifting further southward in the days before the storm made landfall last year, devastating the Gulf Coast. “You have time today and know what you need to do.”
Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said the storm surge and winds are one concern, but that effects can be far-reaching.
“You will see isolated isolated tropical-storm-generated tornadoes. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible with more organized outer rain bands that move across the Florida peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday,” he said. “When we saw that, again in Hurricane Ian, the very first incident we had was an EF-0 tornado in Palm Beach County. So that was way far away from landfall when that happened.”
Evacuation notices have been issued in 22 counties with mandatory orders for some people in eight of those counties. Many of the notices were for people in low-lying and coastal areas, for those living in structures such as mobile and manufactured homes, recreational vehicles and boats, and for people who would be vulnerable in a power outage.
“You do not have to leave the state. You don’t have to drive hundreds of miles. You have to get to higher ground in a safe structure. You can ride the storm out there, then go back to your home,” DeSantis said.
In Tarpon Springs, 60 patients were evacuated from a hospital out of concern that the system could bring a 7-foot storm surge.
In Levy County, officials said residents of Cedar Key must be off the island by Tuesday evening because storm surges would make bridges impassable.
“Once the storm surge comes in, help may not be available to reach you,” the county said in a public advisory.
The counties under DeSantis’ emergency order are: Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lake, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Nassau, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, and Wakulla counties.
Left to Right, City of Oviedo Public Works employees Alex Gonzalez stacks sandbags, as Andrew Shuttloefel, Craig Stauffeldt, and Fidel Canot, operate a sandbag-filling machine, in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia, on Monday, August 28, 2023. (Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda)
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Amy Ertel, fills up sandbags as the City of Oviedo opens a sandbag-filling location in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia, on Monday, August 28, 2023. The city also has a sandbag-filling machine, that fills and sews the bags, helping save time and effort. Tropical storm Idalia intensified, and the National Hurricane Center predicted it would be a Category 3 before it reaches Florida. (Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel)
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Teresa Mercedes, 66, gets a hug from Meals on Wheels Senior V.P. Wilda Belisle during a wellness visit to make sure she has all her essential needs in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia at her Kissimmee apartment on August 28, 2023. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel)
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Rafaela Cruz gets a wellness visit at her Kissimmee apartment from Meals on Wheels Senior V.P. Wilda Belisle, center, and Debora Foscolo from Instead Senior Care on Monday, August 28, 2023, to make sure she has all her essential needs in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel)
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Orange County Mayor Jerry Deming gives an update on Orange County’s storm readiness and preparations for Tropical Storm Idalia on Monday, August 28, 2023. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel)
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Brian Adams removes umbrellas from the playground at St. Paul’s Catholic School in Leesburg on Monday, August 28, 2023, in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia which is set to hit Florida’s west coast this week as a major hurricane. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel)
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Customers wait in line to pump gas at Sam’s Club in The Villages on Monday, August 28, 2023. Many are scrambling to garner supplies in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia, set to hit Florida’s west coast this week as a major hurricane. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel)
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Customers pump gas at Sam’s Club in The Villages on Monday, August 28, 2023. Many are scrambling to garner supplies in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia, set to hit Florida’s west coast this week as a major hurricane. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel)
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The City of Oviedo opens up a a sandbag-filling location in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia, on Monday, August 28, 2023. The city also has a sandbag-filling machine, that fills and sews the bags, helping save time and effort. Tropical storm Idalia intensified, and the National Hurricane Center predicted it would be a Category 3 before it reaches Florida. (Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel)
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The City of Oviedo opens up a a sandbag-filling location in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia, on Monday, August 28, 2023. The city also has a sandbag-filling machine, that fills and sews the bags, helping save time and effort. Tropical storm Idalia intensified, and the National Hurricane Center predicted it would be a Category 3 before it reaches Florida. (Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel)
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Left to Right, City of Oviedo Public Works employees Andrew Shuttloefel, Craig Stauffeldt, and Fidel Canot, operate a sandbag-filling machine, in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia, on Monday, August 28, 2023. Tropical storm Idalia intensified, and the National Hurricane Center predicted it would be a Category 3 before it reaches Florida. (Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel)
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The City of Oviedo opens up a a sandbag-filling location in preparation for Tropical Storm Idalia, on Monday, August 28, 2023. The city also has a sandbag-filling machine, that fills and sews the bags, helping save time and effort. (Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel)
DeSantis said the state was prepped for reaction once the storm hits including more than 420,000 gallons of fuel staged and ready to deploy plus the activation of eight urban search and rescue teams, 580 search and rescue personnel and all of the state’s 5,500 National Guardsmen.
“With this storm, given the geography, there’s gonna be a lot of debris, a lot of trees, a lot of that,” DeSantis said. “Now, that’s a challenge but it’s also compared to say an [Hurricane] Ian, where you had it mixed with a lot of commercial and residential, … I think it’ll be easier to get rid of the debris just given how the things are laid out.”
He said by the time the storm passes, there will be between 30,000 and 40,000 utility linesman staged in the state ready to deploy, with 25,000 already in place.
“They will immediately move to commence power restoration efforts,” he said. “We’ve also been working with counties to make sure that they know that we have resources ready to deploy and we want to be helpful to support their efforts.”
In addition, he said the state has deployed 247 of Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starlink units to boost internet access to first responders in regions hit hardest by the storm with another 529 staged in Central Florida.
As of 9 a.m. Tuesday, 42 school districts have announced school closures over the next two days, along with 16 state colleges and seven Florida universities. Tampa International Airport closed at midnight Monday and St. Pete Clearwater International Airport will close at 3 p.m. Tuesday, the governor said at the press conference.
United Launch Alliance called off a planned launch from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station of an Atlas V rocket on a mission for the National Reconnaissance Office opting to roll the rocket back to safety “out of an abundance of caution.”
In anticipation of Idalia’s arrival, the Florida Department of Environmental Protection has closed 65 state parks along the western portion of the state’s peninsula and in North Florida.
The Florida Department of Transportation is securing the massive construction project along the Howard Frankland Bridge between Tampa and St. Petersburg across Tampa Bay.
The St. Johns River Water Management District is preparing for the northern half of its 18-county jurisdiction to be in the path of Idalia as a category one hurricane, bringing high wind and moderate rainfall.
Central Florida’s SunRail commuter rail service will be shut down beginning Tuesday in anticipation of stormy weather. The passenger train runs 61 miles from DeBary in Volusia County through Seminole and Orange counties and into Osceola County south of Kissimmee.
Suspending service is a lengthy task of securing gate arms at 126 road crossings and storing SunRail trains. Resuming passenger service also requires considerable effort, including inspection of track conditions.
The region’s main public bus system, LYNX, will shut also down by late Tuesday night and through Wednesday except for “life sustaining” trips by ACCESS LYNX, the agency’s door-to-door service for passengers unable to use regular buses because of disabilities. LYNX runs nearly 70 bus routes in Orange, Seminole and Osceola counties and provides nearly 53,000 rides each weekday. The system also serves small portions of Lake and Polk counties.
Kevin Spear and Jeff Weiner of the Sentinel staff and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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