US election 2020: How Donald Trump would fare if Britain could decide US election outcome

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President Donald Trump is up against Democratic challenger Joe Biden as the US election 2020 draws closer. Currently, polls are suggesting Mr Biden would be elected with a 10 percentage points lead over the incumbent President. That means just over 50 percent of Americans are planning on voting for Mr Biden.

The election outcome will give either Mr Trump or Mr Biden four years at the White House.

However, despite polls suggesting Mr Trump could be in trouble this election, he triumphed in 2016 despite losing the popular vote.

Mr Biden has seen his odds improve to make him the strong 8/15 favourite (65 percent), with Mr Trump at odds of 15/8 (35 percent), according to Betfair Exchange.

Betfair spokesman Darren Hughes said: “While Trump had narrowed the gap last week to odds of 6/4 (40 percent), sustained support for Biden has seen the gap widen once again, and it is Biden that remains the strong favourite to win the election.

“Since his odds were as high as 99/1 in March, when it looked unlikely he would even win the primaries, Biden has come in for steady support, and seen his odds shorten dramatically.

“Apart from a brief period in August, after both party conventions, Biden has remained the clear-cut favourite from the incumbent Trump.

“Early voting figures suggest that up to 50m Americans have already cast their ballots, and with the conventional wisdom seeming to suggest that a high turnout is in Biden’s favour, his odds have reflected these numbers, and he is the strong favourite with a week to go.”

But according to a fresh YouGov poll, commissioned by Betfair, Britons would vote a clear winner through on election day.

The online poll, which has a sample size of 1,725 British adults and was undertaken between October 14 and 15, 2020, revealed Britain would overwhelmingly vote Mr Trump out of the White House if given a vote.

As many as 80 percent of those surveyed in the UK said they would elect Mr Biden as their president, with just 20 percent voting for Mr Trump.

Mr Trump is more popular with men, with 24 percent of those who gave a preference saying the incumbent President would get their vote, compared to 14 percent of women.

Just above three quarters (77 percent) of those surveyed believe Mr Trump is not fit to be US President.

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However, Mr Biden doesn’t garner much support himself with only 37 percent claiming he is fit to be the next man to take the White House.

Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom said: “With the US Election just seven days away, speculation on how the election will go is intensifying, with polls seeming to suggest a Biden victory is on the cards.

“With more than £190m bet on the outcome of the election on Betfair Exchange, Biden’s odds of 1/2 suggest he has a 67 percent chance of coming out on top after the election on November 3, with Mr Trump’s odds of 2/1 suggesting his chances of victory are just 33.

“That gives Biden over double the implied probability of election than his rival.”

“However, we are still seeing plenty of money for the POTUS and in fact more money has been bet on Mr Trump in this race, with £94m compared to £88m on Mr Biden.

“It’s also worth remembering the U-turn the market saw on election night in 2016, where Hillary Clinton went in the big odds-on favourite. And we all know how that turned out.”

Paul Krishnamurty, Professional Political Gambler and Analyst added: “While the people of Britain may have declared their desire for a clear-cut Biden victory, the US landscape is somewhat different.

“Mr Trump’s ability to capture the public discourse makes this election a referendum on himself, and he will need to secure some of the important swing-states to have any chance of victory.

“States like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Arizona are crucial if Trump wants to retain the White House, and he needs each one to fall perfectly in his favour for the election to go his way.”

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