German election polls: Angela Merkel’s party lead slashed as Greens push for top spot

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Voters in Germany will go to the polls on September 26 to elect their next Chancellor. After almost 16 years at the nation’s leader – Bundeskanzlerin in German – Merkel will be replaced come election day no matter which party prevails.

But her successor as leader of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union coalition, Armin Laschet, is having a torrid time in the opinion polls.

In fact, the most recent poll to come out of Germany suggests the centre-right coalition could be compounded to their worst electoral result since the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

The Kantar poll of 1,446 voters still put the CDU-CSU at the front of the pack but did so with a significantly reduced lead.

In Merkel’s last election victory, the outgoing Chancellor secured a fourth successive term with just 32.9 percent of the vote.

Mrs Merkel, 67, never received support lower than three in ten German voters.

However, in the most recent poll, Laschet is expected to only obtain support from 22 percent of the nation’s voters.

The Green Party in Germany, which is led by Annalena Baerbock, has established itself as Germany’s second largest party in many of the most recent opinion polls.

In the Kantar survey, the Greens are said to have improved significantly on their 2017 result – in which they won just 8.9 percent of the vote – to finish just one point behind the centre-right coalition.

This mirrors a successful performance for the Greens in the 2019 European Parliamentary Elections in Germany.

Out of 96 seats Germans took up in Brussels and Strasbourg, the Greens almost doubled their total to 21.

The success of the Greens could also cost Germany’s traditional left-of-centre party, the Social Democratic Party, seats in the Bundestag.

The SDP, similarly to the CDU-CSU coalition, has been a long-established party in Germany and has produced notable political figures.

Between 2012 and 2017, the SDP even had representation at the highest point in the European Parliament with Martin Schulz as the institution’s President.

While support for the SDP, which is now led by 63-year-old Olaf Scholz, has not tanked to the same extent as it has for their centre-right opponents, they are still expected to experience a dip in support.

So much so that they will fall into third place for the first time since German reunification.

As Germany primarily uses proportional representation to elect its politicians, the main parties will, despite their clear policy-based differences, form broad coalitions, known as rainbow coalitions.

Despite this, the Kantar poll, conducted between August 4 and 10, registered public support for three other political parties in Germany.

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Christian Lindner’s Freedom Democratic Party, which sits in the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in the European Parliament, has found itself in fourth place on 12 percent – a slight increase on their 2017 performance.

Germany’s most left-wing mainstream party, Linke, has seen its support dip slightly as it maintains its sixth-place position on seven percent.

But the right-wing populist party, Alternative for Deutschland, has found itself falling from its third-place finish four years ago.

This most recent poll indicates the anti-EU integration party, which is led by the leader of the opposition Alice Widel and Tino Chrupalla, has been unable to emulate the polling successes of the populist parties in Italy.

Instead, support for the AfD has fallen by around one point since the last election and in turn the party would drop into fifth place.

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