Boris Johnson exit odds: Will Boris Johnson step down?

Boris Johnson grilled on 'ridiculous' defence of May party

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Boris Johnson continues to face the wrath of the public and politicians for a string of parties held in Downing Street over the course of various coronavirus lockdowns. Day by day, more and more allegations of parties by Government staff are coming to the surface, making the Prime Minister’s position in office unstable.

There is widespread concern within the Conservative party that the Prime Minister’s position is now untenable, with some key members directly calling for Mr Johnson to step aside.

The Prime Minister is facing a barrage from all sides, and new information from his former top advisor Dominic Cummings claiming the Prime Minister was aware in advance of the May 20 party he attended is in direct opposition to what the Prime Minister told the House of Commons when he apologised.

There is still support for Mr Johnson within his own party – many of his Cabinet have publicly come to his defence, but key members like Rishi Sunak have made paltry efforts to back the boss.

If anything, it’s clear Downing Street is failing to control what happens next – and usually in such momentous scandals, a Prime Minister would fall on their sword.

READ MORE: ‘He got us out of cesspit EU!’ Britons back Boris despite opposition

What are the odds Boris will resign?

According to Betfair, Boris Johnson is odds on at 4/7 to resign in 2022.

But punters don’t believe he will step back just yet, with the betting house recording an 11 percent chance of his resignation taking place in January.

The favourite to replace Mr Johnson is still Chancellor Rishi Sunak, with odds of 13/8 of becoming the next leader of the Conservatives.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss isn’t far behind, however, with Betfair putting her odds to succeed Mr Johnson at 11/4.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “Punters don’t think Boris Johnson will fall on his sword any time soon and Betfair’s latest market gives him just an 11 percent chance of resigning in January.

“However Johnsons’ chances of seeing out the year are much slimmer, and 2022 is the 4/7 favourite to be the year that he steps down as party leader.

“Rishi Sunak is the 13/8 favourite to upgrade No11 to No10 and replace Johnson as the leader of the Conservative party, with Liz Truss next at 11/4 and then Jeremy Hunt at 11/2.”

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But if Mr Johnson doesn’t resign, he could be taken down by his own party.

The process by which the Conservative party can oust a leader is confidential, and run by the extremely powerful 1922 Committee of backbenchers.

A vote of no confidence is when a portion of a parties MP’s decide they they want rid of the current leader and take action to replace them.

Conservative Party rules state at least 15 percent of Tory MPs must write a no confidence letter to make a leadership challenge possible.

This figure currently equates to 54 Conservative MPs needing to submit a letter to 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady.

Under the Conservative Party’s rules, letters are handed in confidentially, so no accurate total of how many have been submitted is known.

If enough letters are received – 54 – a secret ballot will take place.

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